INSIGHTS

April 6, 2026

Manager Perspective

Research Over Headlines: Staying Focused on Fundamentals in Volatile Markets

As many of you know, at Tandem we utilize Piper Sandler in New York for external research. Amy and I have followed Nancy Lazar and her team’s work for years and view it as a valuable complement to our process. You can learn more about Nancy here.

They recently announced that Kurt Lewis has joined Piper Sandler as Head of Central Bank Policy. Kurt spent nearly two decades at the Federal Reserve, most recently as Special Adviser to Chair Jerome Powell, and previously to Vice Chair Lael Brainard.

C. Angus Schaal, CFP^®

Senior Managing Director

Amy Bush, CFA

Chief Investment Officer

Earlier in his career, he focused on the intersection of macroeconomics and financial markets, including financial stress, its impact on the real economy, the Fed’s lender-of-last-resort role, and the natural rate of interest. More recently, he has supported policymakers in assessing economic conditions and advising on monetary policy strategy and communication.

That combination of academic grounding and direct policy experience should provide meaningful insight into how the Fed is thinking, not just what they are saying.

Kurt is expected to begin publishing research in the coming weeks, and we look forward to incorporating his perspective. This is an example of the depth of experience and knowledge we deploy in making decisions.

In closing, we want to remind everyone how important it is to stay invested during periods like this. Markets can move quickly, and we saw a strong rally at the end of March as we head into earnings season.

The fundamental outlook for the S&P 500 has not materially changed, as earnings per share estimates have remained relatively stable. What we have seen instead is a reset in valuations, with investors paying lower prices for those earnings due to uncertainty. If earnings do weaken, it will likely be driven by slower sales, higher costs, or pressure on profit margins.

At the same time, parts of the economy remain relatively resilient. Consumer spending has held up better than expected, even with higher oil prices, although that strength is uneven across income levels. Manufacturing activity has also shown signs of stabilization, with the recovery remaining gradual. The labor market also remains relatively stable, with unemployment still at historically low levels.

We are monitoring global developments, particularly in Iran, given their potential impact on oil prices and the broader economy. GDP, or gross domestic product, represents the total value of goods and services produced, and sustained increases in energy costs can act as a headwind to growth.

Even with these risks, there are still important positives. The US economy continues to benefit from government support, central bank policy, and improving productivity.

Disclosures:

Tandem Wealth Advisors LLC (“Tandem”) is an SEC-registered investment adviser.

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